WP1: INDUSTRIAL KELP CULTIVATION SCENARIOS
1) Identify key environmental variables for efficient kelp production.
2) Identify suitable kelp production locations and potential conflicts with natural populations.
3) Estimate future industrial cultivation scenarios ranging in volume from ‘probable’ to ‘extreme’.
Norwegian kelp aquaculture is still in its infancy, and little empirical data are available on regulating factors at existing cultivation sites. It is therefore necessary to establish a scientific knowledge base on environmental conditions and kelp production facilities. Here, we will collect published literature and unpublished project results from national and international research groups (collaborators and others) and commercial enterprises (project partners) to develop the best possible foundation for a sound scientific project.
T1.1 Areas for kelp production. The coupled 3D hydrodynamics-biology-kelp dynamical model system SINMOD and GIS models will be used to identify suitable locations for kelp production along the Norwegian coast. Water currents, depth, location exposure, light conditions, temperature, and nutrient availability will be considered, as well as dynamical responses to these variables. By combining the results from SINMOD with habitat models (GIS), suitable cultivation areas (based on basic physical and biogeochemical variables) will be identified. Attention will be given to contrasting different physical cultivation conditions and existing facilities will be investigated with close involvement of the industry partners (Hortimare; inner fjord / sheltered coast, and SES; outer/exposed coast). This task will benefit from existing collaborations with the funded and ongoing projects; MACROSEA (RCN, 2016-2019), GENIALG (EU, starting 2017), PROMAC (RCN, ongoing), TAREAL (Møre og Romsdal County Council).
T1.2 Specification of cultivation scenarios. Scenarios for assessments of kelp cultivation effects will be defined to be used in WP2, 3 and 5. The scenarios will be based on combining different values of cultivation variables along two axes: production volume (small to large) along one axis and intensity/density (extensive to intensive) along the other; e.g. "low volume-high density" cultivation. The specification of volumes will be based on T1.2, on reports on present day production and on the future potential (high end; Olafsen et al. 2012 suggest a production of 4 × 106 t yr-1 by 2030). The specification of intensity/density will be based on T1.1, T1.2, reports on production volumes and existing concession sizes, model simulations (SINMOD) and published literature on the productivity of Saccharina and Alaria populations.
• Scientific paper on the potential for kelp cultivation along the Norwegian coast based on region and natural physio-chemical conditions. The paper will discuss available areas, overlaps and potential conflicts with natural habitats and the production potential both near shore and off shore.
• Report including specification of large scale cultivation scenarios for WP2 and 3 and recommendations for WP5.